Ligue 1 Tips: Back Over 2.5 Goals to make your weekend profit

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·2 May 2024

Ligue 1 Tips: Back Over 2.5 Goals to make your weekend profit

Prices make high goals worth backing
Lille and Lyon to serve up Monday thrills
Goals flying in
Last weekend saw Ligue 1 hit an historic high: every team in France's top flight - yes, all 18 of them - scored a goal.
It was the first time since the 1976-77 season that every team in the French top flight had found the net on a single matchday. Across the nine matches played, a total of 40 goals - an average of 4.44 goals per game - were scored.
End-of-season trend
Generally speaking, towards the end of the season, Ligue 1 matches are higher-scoring. In each of the past three seasons, more than 60 per cent of matches in the final quarter of the campaign have had three or more goals.
Of course, whether this knowledge can help you to make a profit depends on the prices available. The good news is that, as the season draws to a close, the prices on Over 2.5 Goals have held up fairly well so far.
Leaving PSG's matches out of the equation - as the odds on their matches having Over 2.5 Goals are generally much shorter than for other matches because of the capital club's uniquely high-scoring potential - from Matchday 27 to Matchday 31 (last weekend) inclusive, 40 matches have been played.
Overs the smart pick
Twenty-three of those 40 matches (58 per cent) have featured three or more goals. The average odds on the Over 2.5 Goals winners that landed across those games was 2.0421/20, meaning that, if you'd backed Over 2.5 Goals in all non-PSG matches, you'd have walked away with a healthy 17.3% ROI.
With three rounds of fixtures to go, the price on Over 2.5 Goals may shorten now. As we run out of road, games involving sides looking to secure European spots or save themselves from relegation become ever more frantic and open, and that is likely to be reflected in shorter prices on Overs across the final three matchdays.
We still favour Overs, however, and wouldn't talk anyone out of backing all non-PSG games to have Over 2.5 Goals this weekend. For those looking for a smaller number of selections, our main picks would be the following:
Lorient are in the second automatic relegation spot and three points from safety with only three games to go. Even though they face a tricky fixture vs sixth-placed Lens, they have to play to win, which should make this an open game. Looking to secure a European spot, Lens will be only too happy to trade attacking blows with a Lorient side that has the division's worst defensive record.
Metz are in the relegation playoff spot (16th) while Rennes are still in the hunt for a European place. Given how tight the situation is at either end of the table, both teams have to play to win. Seven of the last 10 matches involving these two sides have featured Over 2.5 Goals.
Third-placed Brest secured a European place thanks to their remarkable 5-4 win at Rennes last weekend and, with the pressure off, will now look to claim a Champions League place if they can. Nantes are only three points above the relegation positions and, with tough fixtures vs Lille (home) and Monaco (away) coming up, they'll look to pick up as many points as they can here. Expect an open, full-blooded encounter.
This will be a clash between two of Ligue 1's most entertaining sides, competing for a Champions League spot (in Lille's case) and European place (for Lyon). Attacks are better than defences on both sides, evidenced by the fact that 22 of 28 (79 per cent) games involving these two sides in 2024 have featured Over 2.5 Goals.

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Ligue 1 Tips: Back Over 2.5 Goals to make your weekend profit | OneFootball

Ligue 1 Tips: Back Over 2.5 Goals to make your weekend profit

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