Premier League Tipsheet: Ten of the best weekend bets from 5/6 to 4/1

In partnership with

Betting.Betfair.com

·9 May 2024

Premier League Tipsheet: Ten of the best weekend bets from 5/6 to 4/1

Fulham v Man City (Sat, 12:30) - Rodri the creator

After plundering four last weekend, Erling Haaland is an obvious candidate to propel City to the top of the league for 24 hours. The Striking Viking bagged a hat-trick against the Cottagers earlier this season.

Elsewhere, Kevin De Bruyne is always good for an assist while Julian Alvarez has fired two in three.

OneFootball Videos

Away from individuals of course the main cause of Fulham's demise on Saturday lunchtime will be death by a thousand cuts, as Pep Guardiola's side maintains control, adjusts the rhythm of the game to their own will, and endlessly probe.It's an approach, superbly executed, that has brought an average of 17.8 shots away from home this season, while it's also pertinent to point out that City have scored in both halves in five of their last seven away. That makes Man City/Man City a shout at 8/111.73.

Rodri too must be a consideration, City's pivotal pivot benefiting from being pushed further forward, in a similar manner to Rice at Arsenal. The Spanish midfielder has carved out six assists and a goal in his last eight displays.With 90 minutes of graft awaiting Fulham it's worth noting that only five players have committed more fouls this term than Palhinha.

Bournemouth v Brentford (Sat, 15:00) - Third in line

It can safely be assumed that Gareth Southgate will take two out-and-out centre-forwards with him to Germany this summer, those being Harry Kane and Ollie Watkins.

What we have at the Vitality this Saturday then is the intriguing proposition of two strikers auditioning to be the back-up to the back-up, the third in line privately hoping that an injury occurs between now and June. Just a hamstring strain. Nothing serious.

Ivan Toney's sustained goal drought has done him no favours in this regard, the Bees hit-man now goalless in nine starts and a cameo off the bench.

In contrast, Dominic Solanke has not gone more than three games without notching all season.Bournemouth have only lost twice at home since October - to Liverpool and Manchester City - and are fancied here to prevail over an out-of-sorts Brentford who have drawn four in seven.

The hosts should certainly be backed to win out at set-pieces, boasting the fourth highest number of corners this term. In their last five at home they have averaged 8.8 per 90.

Everton v Sheff Utd (Sat, 15:00) - Surprise, surprise

The Blades have hemorrhaged 100 goals across a miserable campaign, with 16 of them coming in their last four fixtures.The Toffees meanwhile have only conceded once in their last four, and have the second highest number of clean sheets in the top-flight.

Surely this all equates to one-way traffic?

But wait, because up front Sean Dyche's men have too often been found wanting, converting just 38 goals from 51.9 xG.

The visitors meanwhile have scored in eight of their last nine, striking twice at the Vitality Stadium and Old Trafford. It's notable too that Ben Brereton has scored every 158 mins in 2023/24.

With their seasons over bar the shouting, don't be surprised to be surprised at what might transpire at Goodison.

Newcastle v Brighton (Sat, 15:00) - Home advantage

The Seagulls have won only twice on the road since September, both against bottom six opposition, while home and away their goals have dried up of late.

Roberto De Zerbi's side haven't scored more than a single goal in any of their last ten games, failing to score in half of them.Joao Pedro's rediscovery of where the net is bodes well, the Brazilian notching his first last weekend post-injury. All told, the 22-year-old has taken on 3.3 shots per 90 this term.

Brighton also have the muscle memory of beating the Magpies earlier in the campaign, bossing every meaningful stat.

That aside though, all of the positives reside with the hosts who have repeatedly proven they have the ways and means to pummel teams into submission at St James Park.

In seven of their 18 there this term they have racked up 4+ goals and Alexander Isak certainly enjoys home advantage, scoring in each of his last seven games in the North-East.

Full stats

Speaking of Isak, his fledgling partnership with Callum Wilson - trialed to good effect last season and once again last Saturday - should strike fear into defenders great and good.Both forwards are in the top six for shots on target this season. In his last outing against Burnley, the Swede tested the keeper on three occasions.

Tottenham v Burnley (Sat, 15:00) - In need of repair

Anything other than three points will see the Clarets make a swift return to the Championship and though victory in North London feels like a tall order, we must factor in that Spurs are in horrible shape right now.

Four defeats back-to-back has seen them ship in 13 and furthermore it's shone a great big spotlight on two flaws that have long hindered them.

Spurs are woeful at defending set pieces, conceding 14 times from dead-ball situations in 2023/24. And no other team have lost possession more in their defensive third.

Can Burnley take advantage of such failings? Certainly Postecoglou's creation looks broken and will need repairing over the summer, but Son Heung-min is a genuine threat to the visitors' survival hopes. Bagging a hat-trick when they last met in September the forward has eight goal involvements from prior encounters.

Goals are the way to go here, and a fair few of them. Both teams have scored in eight of Burnley's last nine games while Tottenham's fixtures this season have produced an average of 3.6.

West Ham v Luton (Sat, 15:00) - Down fighting

A defeat would all-but-condemn the Hatters to the drop so expect them to play to their strengths, with plenty of ambition and intent shown down the flanks.

The return of Elijah Adebayo is a big plus for Rob Edwards and it's not a coincidence that 40% of the striker's goals this season have come from headers. Luton have fired over 801 crosses all told, a league high.

It naturally follows too that Luton have amassed a high volume of corners this term.

Another well-known trope associated with the relegation strugglers is that they score regularly late-on, but they have notched inside 20 minutes at St James Park, Anfield, the Vitality Stadium and at Spurs in 2024. It may therefore be pertinent that only Burnley and Sheffield United have conceded more first-half goals than the Hammers in 2023/24.

Whether they have the wherewithal to maintain a lead however remains to be seen, with Mohammed Kudus' 4.6 successful dribbles per 90 surpassed only by Jeremy Doku and Jarrod Bowen boasting four in his last five at home.

Heartache possibly awaits.

Wolves v Crystal Palace (Sat, 15:00) - Polar opposites

A heavy defeat to little resistance at the Etihad last week has done little to dissuade those who believe Wolves' race is run. Gary O'Neil's men has been second-best in duels won in four of their last five fixtures, against City considerably so.

Rash tackles have took the place of committed ones, as evidenced by Nelson Semedo picking up five bookings in his last 10. Wolves have averaged 3.2 yellows per game since their poor run began at the end of March.

A very different narrative applies to Palace whose season figuratively began only three months ago when Oliver Glasner took charge and put them on the front foot.

Benefiting hugely from this more offensive approach, an attacking trio of Olise, Eze and Mateta are running amok, the latter in especially prolific mood. The French striker boasts six goals in six.

With Wolves porous in recent weeks an away victory is fancied, though don't discount a late consolation. Palace have conceded the most top-flight goals this term (10) in added-on time.

Nottingham Forest v Chelsea (Sat, 17:30) - Look at the stars

Forest are unfortunate to face Chelsea in possibly their best moment of the season, after seeing off Spurs and West Ham, both times to nil. Clawing back a two-goal deficit at Villa Park is not to be sniffed at either.

Yet the Blues remain unpredictable on the road, with an inability to keep clean sheets away from the Bridge. They last managed to do so on October 2nd.

A win for the Tricky Trees will either guarantee safety or virtually secure it and their player to watch is Morgan Gibbs-White, creator of big chances every 2.3 games. Callum Hudson-Odoi is coming into form too.

As for the Blues, besides Cole Palmer's obvious threats, Noni Madueke is averaging 3.3 successful dribbles per 90 while Nicolas Jackson has six goal involvements in five.

For all of their recent improvements, Chelsea's discipline problems cannot be overlooked.

They have already picked up the second most cautions in Premier League history. Four more at the weekend and they accrue a very unwelcome record.

Man United v Arsenal (Sun, 16:30) - Vast disparity

There are a hundred ways to illustrate the vast disparity between these two sides at present, not least Arsenal's odds to score twice or more at Old Trafford this Sunday.

The title-chasers are 2/71.29 to do so and you would presumably get similar for Mikel Arteta to stray outside his technical area at some juncture of the game.

Yet the price is right. Arsenal have scored 3.1 goals per 90 in 2024 while a crisis-hit United - decimated of defenders, confidence, and any real sort of game-plan - have been breached 2+ times in four of their last five sorry outings, and 51% overall this season. It's focusing on shots though where some value can be found.

United have faced 316 in 2024, a remarkable tally, and had to deal with 10 on target against Liverpool and Chelsea in recent weeks.Saka, Odegaard, Havertz and Trossard, all hell-bent on winning the league, are more than capable of getting close to that.

Aston Villa v Liverpool (Mon, 20:00) - Front-runners

The first goal here will be key because both sides are excellent front-runners. Between them, they've lost only once from a winning position (Villa at Old Trafford on Boxing Day) and for both winning positions have been the norm.

Darwin Nunez's 4.7 shots per 90 is certainly noteworthy, it being a league high, while Ollie Watkins has previous against the Reds, scoring five in past encounters.

The Uruguayan however has resided on the bench in recent weeks and Watkins has begun to misfire. Nothing major, but enough to plant a seed of doubt.

Two other players therefore demand attention.

Mo Salah, with his xGOT of 20.8, is revved up with a point to prove. Wataru Endo meanwhile has committed 2.6 fouls per 90 this term.